China–Mexico Daily Brief | Oct 19: Ebrard expects a favorable US response before year-end

Ebrard: Mexico has given the US all technical elements and expects a favorable answer before year-end

Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said in Mexico City on 19 October that all technical elements have been given to the US, that it is hard to say what day Washington will decide but the decision should be seen in the coming weeks, and that he expects a good answer before year-end; El Economista reported that Mexico expects the final word on the USMCA review after the US midterm elections on 3 November. The same day, Donald Trump told a rally in Kansas that the two countries are “very close” to a deal and spoke of bringing the US trade deficit with Mexico close to zero. El Financiero reports that President Claudia Sheinbaum said Trump asked Mexico to buy more US natural gas and to let US companies take part in Pemex, but that these are not conditions for renewing the treaty.

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Ebrard: Economy Ministry checked steel mills in Asia and withdrew more than 1,000 registrations; no transshipment in Mexican steel

Ebrard said on 19 October that the Economy Ministry sent teams to check in Asia the mills importers list on their certificates, that some were not real, and that more than 1,000 registrations were withdrawn, something he said the US has not done. He said no transshipment is currently identified in Mexican steel exports, that the argument lacks basis to support the 50% US tariff on steel and aluminum, and that the Senate asked for a report. EFE adds that he said the government intends to extend origin certification to most exports and later to domestic consumption, with checks already under way in electromobility. The scheme has a precedent: in May 2025 the ministry announced the cancellation of 1,062 foreign mill registrations after finding inconsistencies in about half of more than 2,000 reviewed.

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Mexico's Economy Ministry presents national-content methods for energy; certification time to fall from 18 months to 90 days

On 19 October the Economy Ministry presented and signed one national-content methodology for each of three sectors — hydrocarbons, electricity and biofuels — to be sent to the DOF. Each folds domestic goods and services, Mexican labor, specialized training, local infrastructure investment and technology transfer into a single measure, under six energy laws published on 18 March 2025. Ebrard said certification will fall from 18 months to 90 calendar days; El Economista reports that between October 2024 and October 2026 the ministry issued 320 technical opinions covering US$152,024 million of investment over 30 years, of which US$60,811 million (40%) is national content, above the 35% required.

GWM Mexico: plant project continues and brands will be unified; January–September sales fell 8.7%

GWM Mexico's general manager Pedro Albarrán told El Economista on 19 October, at the launch of the H7 SUV, that the Mexican plant project has not stopped and awaits instructions from the Chinese headquarters, moving slower than hoped because of geopolitical factors. The report, citing INEGI figures, says GWM sold 10,022 units in January–September, 8.7% fewer than a year earlier. The company plans to grow from 46 to 60 dealers by mid-2027, launch at least 10 products next year and fold sub-brands such as Haval and Poer under the GWM logo; Albarrán added that it cut costs to cope with the 50% tariff on Chinese-built cars and will not raise prices.

Transport minister: cargo airlines could return to Mexico City's AICM off-peak, but none has asked to

Infrastructure and Transport Secretary Jesús Esteva said on 19 October, after the ALTA forum, that any dedicated cargo airline may return to Mexico City's AICM, but only at non-saturated hours, and that the 2023 decree banning dedicated-cargo operations would have to be amended or removed first. He said current cargo carriers are happy at Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) and none has wanted to return for now; AIFA is now the main cargo terminal by volume. Separately, Expansión reports that the US Department of Transportation lifted on 16 October its restrictions on new routes by Mexican airlines from both airports.

China to control exports of tunnel boring machines and other equipment from 18 November, and revises its dual-use customs challenge procedure

China's Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) and customs administration issued announcement no. 50 of 2026 on 19 October, placing export controls from 18 November on full-face tunnel boring machines (shield and rock), their specially designed parts (cutter heads, screw conveyors, segment erectors, main drive systems), related remanufacturing technology, walking excavators and high-altitude wet-spray machines. Exports to sensitive countries and regions in dispute with China need a licence; other destinations go through a registration filing that yields an export certificate, and the customs declaration must say the item is dual-use and give its control code. The same day, announcements 49 and 51 adjust controls on drones and dredgers, and no. 52 streamlines the customs challenge and identification procedure for dual-use items, effective immediately.

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