China–Mexico Daily Brief | Oct 20: US–Mexico trade deal “very close” but not final
Today: the latest on the US–Mexico deal, remarks at the AMDA forum on tariffs and Chinese auto investment, the Roku–TCL alliance, INEGI's September estimate, the Digital Economy Law, and air cargo at AIFA.
Sheinbaum: US deal “very close” but not final; Ebrard: USMCA stays in force 10 years with annual reviews
President Claudia Sheinbaum said on 20 October that the deal with the US is “very close” but some issues remain and there is no final agreement; Mexico wants to cut US tariffs on vehicles, steel and aluminum as far as possible and avoid new ones. She said the US made proposals to reduce one tariff in exchange for concessions she did not detail, and that nothing outside the constitution and the laws will be negotiated. After meeting senators, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said the USMCA will stay in force for 10 years with annual reviews, the broadest probably this year, and that he wants it closed before year-end; he also mentioned that his next trip will be to China, this year's APEC host.
Why it matters
The size and conditions of any US tariff cut are not yet known, so keep room in prices and delivery terms with Mexican customers. Ebrard's planned trip to China for APEC is worth watching; these remarks announced no new measures toward China.
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Sources
- Secretaría de Economía (mensaje a medios) · · Spanish
- Mexico News Daily (mañanera) · · English
- Mexico News Daily (Ebrard) · · English
- El Financiero · · Spanish
Economy Ministry will keep tariffs on Chinese cars; consultant warns Chinese plant investment could go elsewhere
At the AMDA auto forum on 20 October, Carlos Castillo, head of the Economy Ministry's Productive Development Unit, said in a virtual message that tariffs on cars from China and from countries without a trade deal with Mexico will remain a pillar of strengthening the auto sector. Guido Vildozo of Mobility Global said the promised Chinese auto investment in Mexico, estimated at US$45 billion over 10 years, is being reassessed; even without plants, he projected Chinese brands at 30% of the Mexican market by 2030, and said a plant decision needs volumes near 250,000 units a year.
Why it matters
Tariff policy is not changing soon and timelines for Chinese plants remain uncertain. If you supply carmakers or dealers in Mexico, base your plan on existing customers and networks rather than orders from new plants.
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Sources
- El Economista (Carlos Castillo, SE) · · Spanish
- El Economista (Mobility Global) · · Spanish
- AMDA · · Spanish
Roku and TCL expand alliance, aiming for close to half of Mexico's TV sales in 2027
Roku, citing Circana data, says four in ten TVs sold in Mexico between January and September 2026 run its system, and it aims to approach five in ten in 2027 through a wider alliance with TCL. New TCL models reach retail channels from the fourth quarter of 2026, first in 55, 65, 75 and 85 inches, and for the first time with Mini LED in Roku-powered TVs. Roku's Mexico head estimates about 90% of TCL TVs in 2027 will include Roku, ranks TCL as the country's third-largest TV brand, and says price remains the main buying criterion in Mexico.
Why it matters
For Chinese TV and appliance brands, it shows competition in Mexico turns on price and channel — department stores, price clubs and supermarkets — and that partnering with an established platform is one way to gain share.
Sources
- Expansión · · Spanish
INEGI estimates economic activity grew 3.7% year on year in September
INEGI's timely economic activity indicator (IOAE), published on 20 October, estimates that the September IGAE grew 3.7% year on year and 0.1% month on month, with tertiary activities up 4.0% and secondary activities up 3.6% year on year. The August estimate was 3.2% year on year. This is a model-based estimate, not the official figure, and the next release is due on 19 November.
Why it matters
Domestic activity is still expanding, a relatively favorable backdrop for those selling to the local market; but it is an estimate, and performance varies by sector (see the manufacturing data in the 18 October brief).
Sources
- INEGI (Boletín 629/26, IOAE) · · Spanish
Mexico's Senate passes the Digital Economy Law on digital and electronic payments
On 20 October the Senate passed, by 73 votes to 34 in the general vote, the Digital Economy Law for Digital and Electronic Payments and sent it to the Executive for publication in the DOF. The law aims to widen digital payments and reduce cash, sets rules for merchant collections and remote contracting of financial services, and would allow cash to be restricted in some activities. The Finance Ministry will later publish the list of sectors where digital payment becomes mandatory; Expansión says gas stations and toll booths would go first.
Why it matters
If any of your sales channels rely on cash (for example physical distributors or cash on delivery), watch the list of sectors the Finance Ministry will publish; the effect on online and business-to-business collections is not yet clear, so check with your accountant.
Sources
- Expansión · · Spanish
- El Economista · · Spanish
Sheinbaum: cargo airlines do not want to return to AICM; government is working on bottlenecks such as customs processing at AIFA
Mexico Business News reports that President Claudia Sheinbaum said on 20 October that cargo airlines from the US, Europe and elsewhere told her they do not want to go back to Mexico City's AICM because they have built a more efficient logistics operation at Felipe Ángeles (AIFA). She said her government met cargo firms from the US, Europe and Mexico to resolve lingering administrative bottlenecks, including customs processing inside the AIFA cargo terminal. The US Department of Transportation had lifted on 16 October its restrictions on new routes by Mexican airlines.
Why it matters
For air shippers, AIFA stays the main cargo hub for now and improvements in customs processing are worth watching, though no timetable has been given. Confirm the destination airport and clearance times with your forwarder.
Check your code with the tariff lookup tool
Sources
- Mexico Business News · · English
- El Financiero · · Spanish